My Boy Jack has been inserted as the 2018 Louisiana Derby favorite on the morning line, but it’s a tight race at the top. A gaggle of underdogs will fill the gates at Fair Grounds for the first, major Kentucky Derby prep race and the winner is sure to guarantee their spot at Churchill Downs. It’s not a group that has a real derby winner in the ranks, but this is a great collection of potential underdog specialists. Momentum can be everything by the time we get to the first weekend in May.
The Southwest Stakes was My Boy Jack’s welcome back party. He looked spry and lived up to the hype surrounding his overall potential, but there’s no way you can be one-hundred percent confident in his chances heading in to the 2018 Louisiana Derby.
Bravazo is sure to draw some interest given his huge upset victory at the Risen Star as a 21/1 longshot. His odds now come in at 7/2 given that his closing speed was on full display. He shares the same odds as Noble Indy, a top rated Pletcher trainee who finished third in the Risen Star. Snapper Sinclair, who set the pace in the Risen Star and finished second in a dogfight with Bravazo, comes in at 9/2 but is a skeptical win bet at best.
It’s very likely that your best bet remains in the top-three on the board. My Boy Jack is a solid bet, but Bravazo has really been a new horse since the start of his three-year-old season. I am intrigued by Noble Indy, but not enough to back him.
The remainder of the 2018 Louisiana Derby field is filled with longshots ranging from Hyndford at 8/1 all the way up to Marmello at 50/1. By the time we get to the big Kentucky Derby prep races, the odds speak for themselves so it’s hard to encourage a play on a horse that hasn’t won his last race. Those two are Bravazo and My Boy Jack, who I’m packaging in an exacta box. They’re too close to each other talaent wise for me to be convinced either way but I can hedge by taking both instead.
For whatever it’s worth, I like Givemeaminut to shock the crowd with a third place finish. He’s a 20/1 shot so it’s a good gamble in my eyes.
2018 Louisiana Derby – Saturday, March 24th at Fair Grounds
1 1/8th Miles – Three Year Olds – $1,000,000
|1||Bravazo (KY)||Gary L. Stevens||122||D. Wayne Lukas||7/2|
|2||Noble Indy (KY)||John R. Velazquez||122||Todd A. Pletcher||7/2|
|3||Marmello (KY)||Jack Gilligan||122||Mikhail Yanakov||50/1|
|4||Givemeaminit (LA)||Javier Castellano||122||Dallas Stewart||20/1|
|5||Retirement Fund (KY)||Shaun Bridgmohan||122||Steven M. Asmussen||12/1|
|6||Hyndford (KY)||Joe Bravo||122||Todd A. Pletcher||8/1|
|7||Snapper Sinclair (KY)||Jose L. Ortiz||122||Steven M. Asmussen||9/2|
|8||Lone Sailor (KY)||James Graham||122||Thomas M. Amoss||20/1|
|9||My Boy Jack (KY)||Kent J. Desormeaux||122||J. Keith Desormeaux||5/2|
|10||Dark Templar (KY)||Florent Geroux||122||Brendan P. Walsh||12/1|