Florida Derby Winner Audible has Speed, but will he Hold Up to the Classic Distance?
The 2017 Kentucky Derby post-time favorite won the race for the 5th year in a row. But when big longshots of 33-1 and 40-1 finished 2nd and 3rd, it triggered some big payouts in the $2 exact ($334), trifecta ($16,594) and life-changing superfecta ($151,949).
Audible won’t blow up the tote board if he makes the money, as he’s 8-1 on the morning line following the Derby post-position draw. But he’s a contender who checks many of the necessary boxes to be a Derby winner, and if he displays the same powerful move he used at the top of the stretch before racing home a winner in the Florida Derby, then trainer Todd Pletcher could win his second-straight Kentucky Derby breaking from the same Post 5 as Always Dreaming in 2017.
Audible will be included in a many horse handicappers vertical wagers hoping to cash a nice exacta, trifecta, superfecta or even super-high five score (which paid nearly a half million dollars in the 2017 Kentucky Derby). But should he win, he’ll be the fourth Florida Derby winner to win the Kentucky Derby in the last six years. However, he won’t be on our win wager list.
4-0-1 in 5 starts
5 graded stakes starts
Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
Audible has won four straight races entering the Kentucky Derby including a pair of Derby prep stakes races in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby in which he earned strong BRIS Speed Figures of 105 and 107. He’s been a heavy favorite in three of his five starts and has won four times.
Audible is proven to be a versatile type, winning from the lead, just off the lead and well off the lead like he did in the Florida Derby when he was 20 lengths from the leader at the first two calls combined. The Gulfstream track that day put speed at a disadvantage, so his huge move and romp home was both visually and speed-winning impressive.
Audible has improved his BRIS speed and class rating in each of his races since his maiden debut in September, 2017 at Belmont Park.
Speed measures how fast a horse ran a particular race and is comparable across distance, surface, and location. Class measures competition within each race.
Key Speed Figures and Stats for Audible
- Final 3/8 mile time in the Florida Derby :37.51 seconds
- Best BRIS Speed Rating of 107 in Florida Derby and 105 in Holy Bull
- Trainer Todd Pletcher is a 2-time Kentucky Derby winner including in 2017
Distance may be the only question for Audible, but it’s a question for every horse trying the classic 1 ¼ mile Derby distance for the first time. No trainer knows how his horse is going to handle the enormous environment or the long Churchill Downs stretch carrying 126 pounds for most the first time and trying to get that extra furlong.
Jockey Javier Castellano is a good one, but he’s never finished better than sixth in his 11 career Kentucky Derby mounts. He did however choose to ride Audible instead of Santa Anita runner-up Bolt d’ Oro. But jockey John Velazquez had his choice first for Pletcher, and he passed on Audible and instead chose to ride Vino Rosso.
While Pedigree has been proven wrong before, I’m going to stick with that handicapping angle and say Audible won’t win the Kentucky Derby and have a tougher time holding up to 10 furlongs and the 1/14 mile Derby distance. Into Mischief is the sire of Audible, and he has yet to sire a horse that’s won a stakes race at more than 9 furlongs. Into Mischief was the champion sire of 2-year-olds in 2016 and champion sire of 3-year-olds in 2017. But along with a distaff line that offers very little Classic distance support, we’ll only consider Audible on the back end of our exotic wagers.