Betting Kentucky Derby Longshot Free Drop Billy

Free Drop Billy Could Produce a Big Exotic Score in Kentucky Derby

The 2017 Kentucky Derby post-time favorite won the race for the 5th year in a row. But when big longshots of 33-1 and 40-1 finished 2nd and 3rd, it triggered some big payouts in the $2 exact ($334), trifecta ($16,594) and life-changing superfecta ($151,949). 

Here is a longshot to include in your Derby wagers if you’re looking for a big score, or at least consider before tossing him from your exotic bets. Free Drop Billy is 30-1 on the morning line for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. 

Free Drop Billy

2-3-2 in 8 starts with seven graded stakes starts

Kentucky Derby Betting Guide

Free Drop Billy has a strong pedigree and is an intriguing long shot in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. The Union Rags colt has finished in the money in six of seven stakes starts with one victory in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity when he came off the pace to win by 4 lengths over Bravazo and well clear of Lone Sailor (3rd), both Derby runners. His 91 BRIS Speed Rating in that race was not special, but he did record a 98 BRIS in the Hopeful (G1) last year and a career-best 99 BRIS when he finished a distant 2nd to top Derby contender Audible in the Holy Bull (G2) in February.

Free Drop Billy is a middle of the pack runner who likes to make a late run. He won his maiden at Churchill Downs in June, 2017 and has competed in nothing but graded stakes since. His only finish out of the money was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar when he tired and never fired finishing ninth.

In his three sophomore starts in 2018, Free Drop Billy has been beaten by top Derby contenders Good Magic, Enticed and Audible. While his speed has not matched-up to those runners, he’s still a very well-bred runner definitely has the required stamina to go a Classic distance and should not be tossed based solely on the recent results.

Key Speed Figures and Stats for Free Drop Billy

• Final 3/8 mile time in the Blue Grass Stakes :38.67 seconds

• Best BRIS Speed and Class Rating of 99 in Holy Bull Stakes

• Race favorite in 4-or-7 grades stakes starts

• 5 furlong bullet best of 52 at Churchill Downs on April 21

Free Drop Billy’s final 3/8 mile time of :38.67 does not warrant Derby-winning support, as 16 of the last 21 Derby winners have ran 38 seconds or less in their final Derby prep race. But Free Drop Billy has been the race favorite in four of his stakes starts and never more than 8-1 on the betting board.

Take a closer look at Free Drop Billy before just tossing him as a Derby long shot, and note his 5 furlong bullet work best of 52 on April 21 at Churchill Downs. Intriguing long shot that could produce a big exotic payoff.

 

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