Hofburg Could Produce a Big Exotic Score in Kentucky Derby
The 2017 Kentucky Derby post-time favorite won the race for the 5th year in a row. But when big longshots of 33-1 and 40-1 finished 2nd and 3rd, it triggered some big payouts in the $2 exact ($334), trifecta ($16,594) and life-changing superfecta ($151,949).
Here is a longshot to include in your Derby wagers if you’re looking for a big score, or at least consider before tossing him from your exotic bets. Hofburg is 20-1 on the morning line for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
1-1-0 in 3 starts
Kentucky Derby Betting Guide
Hofburg is a well-bred son of perennially leading sire Tapit and Soothing Touch, a pedigree pattern highlighted by inbreeding to Hall of Famer A.P. Indy. There is an abundance of class on this colts catalog page. Lightly raced with only a maiden win to his credit, Hofburg made his stakes debut in the Florida Derby and finished 2nd behind the favorite and Derby contender Audible. Hofburg was the only colt in that race who was making his first start against winners, and he made a strong closing bid off a fast and furious early pace, coming from 8th position through six furlongs to rally and finish more than 7 lengths in front of the 3rd place finisher. His sizzling 104 BRIS Speed Figure was a career best and his closing style could benefit with much speed and pace expected in the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Hofburg’s 104 BRIS figure was among the fastest of all Derby runners in their final prep. Only Justify, Bolt d’ Oro and Audible were faster. Speed measures how fast a horse ran a particular race and is comparable across distance, surface, and location. Class measures competition within each race.
Key Speed Figures and Stats for Hofburg
• Final 3/8 mile time in the Florida Derby :37.80 seconds
• Best BRIS Speed Figure 100 in Florida Derby and 94 Beyer Speed Figure
• Regally bred with speed and distance pedigree
Hofburg May be better the rest of the year and through the Triple Crown series, but he’s too talented to toss at a big price. It looked like Hofburg would be one of the best value plays on the board until the Churchill Downs oddsmaker made him 20-1 on the morning line, well below his odds to win prior to the Derby post position draw. But if you want a potentially big exotic payoff like the 2017 Derby, then include Hofburg without hesitation.